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Villarini, Lavers, Nayak Published in Geophysical Research Letters
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
The newsletter Geophysical Research Letters has published an article by Gabriele Villarini, assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering and assistant faculty research engineer at IIHR--Hydroscience & Engineering, along with former post doc David Lavers, who is now with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and graduate student, Munir Ahmad Nayak.
The article covers a study on the skill of numerical weather prediction models to forecast atmospheric rivers over the central United States.
The study focuses on the verification of the skill of five numerical weather prediction models in forecasting atmospheric river (AR) activity over the central U.S. The research team finds that the models generally forecast AR occurrences well at short lead times, with location errors increasing from one to three decimal degrees as the lead time increases to about one week. The skill (both in terms of occurrence and location errors) decreases with increasing lead time. Overall, Villarini and his colleagues determine that the models are not skillful in forecasting AR activity over the central U.S. beyond a lead time of about seven days.